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Tipping point

District 7 run-off may lead to more diversity at highest level of city government

Photo illustration by Dan Coogan

The tight runoff race between two Latinos in Phoenix City Council’s District 7 is more than a decision between two top vote-getters. In the bigger picture, there are those who see a major political shift in the city’s Hispanic power base, ideology, campaign tactics and cross-over appeal to non-Latino voters.

The increasing Latino population and voter registration in the district was a factor in electing a Latino candidate. Political observers, however, say the difference isn’t the higher numbers as much as the type of Latinos moving into the district: better educated, more affluent and politically moderate.              

“No matter who wins, it will feel good to see a Latino representing us,” says James Alvarado, a financial advisor who lives in District 7. Alvarado is representative of the more affluent, more educated Hispanics who are moving into the high-growth district, which encompasses parts of central and south Phoenix, Laveen and Maryvale.

Alvarado moved to Laveen eight years ago, and is part of the district’s Hispanic population increase from 25 percent in 1990 to 55 percent today.   

The other dynamics that seated a Latino on the council include two qualified candidates – Laura Pastor and Michael Nowakowski -- who come from well-known political families in Phoenix, and have had better financing, professional campaign management, and political strategies than previous Hispanic candidates.

However, analysts say the most important factor is that the two Latino candidates hold crossover appeal to District 7’s non-Latino voters, a diverse mix that includes young professionals, gays, families and retirees.

There was also change from previous Latino political patterns in the District 7 election. In past council races when two or more Latinos ran against a non-Latino, the Latinos would "cancel" each other out.  

“Political insiders have long joked that when there are two Latinos running for the same office, just turn them against one another, walk right down the middle and win the election,” says one Phoenix businessman who has supported Hispanic candidates in past elections.

In this race, two Latinos have fiercely fought for the same office; they handily defeated two non-Latino candidates and one will emerge victorious.

Moreover, there’s a high probability that another Phoenix City Council candidate who is part Latina -- District 3 Democratic candidate Maria Baier -- will win a run-off election with her opponent, Jon Altmann. Baier’s grandmother was born in Jalisco, Mexico.

District 3's Latino population in northeast Phoenix has increased from 5 percent to 35 percent in the past decade. If Baier wins, the result is a scenario in which two council members with Latino backgrounds will serve on the Phoenix City Council, a historic first since the city council began meeting in May of 1881.

Political experts say that Phoenix is shifting political power from White power brokers to a more diverse leadership, as have other Southwestern cities such as San Antonio, where Hispanics occupy seven out of 10 council seats.

Earl de Berge, director of Behavior Research Institute, says Hispanics are creating political momentum in Phoenix that may allow them to make the city council more multi-cultural. (The independent BRI provides marketing and public opinion research to public and private sector clients.)

He emphasizes the word “may” because the Latino voting community is not homogenous, is increasingly diverse in its political views, historically has had low voter turnouts, and can have widely diverse opinions on issues, he says.

However, the Phoenix-based trend specialist points out that the majority of new residents in Phoenix are native born, speak English (or are bilingual), and represent more affluent Hispanics.

“These are not just poor folks trying to get along,” De Berge says. “They are affluent and they are the most upwardly mobile of all groups.”

He adds, “Latinos are starting to change Arizona politics. This race (District 7) is a tipping point for the Latino community.”

Gregory Rodriguez, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, a non-partisan public policy institute, says Phoenix may be seeing the same model for Hispanic political empowerment that San Antonio has experienced.

San Antonio is ranked by 2002 Census figures as the seventh largest city while Phoenix is ranked fifth. The Texas municipality is 56 percent Hispanic, with an Anglo population of 34 percent. In Phoenix Latinos make up about 35-40 percent of the population (the range accounts for undocumented Hispanics) with Anglos comprising 54 percent.

Rodriguez says in the 1980s politically moderate Mexican Americans began to win city council races throughout the Southwest by “forging an alignment between the Anglo business elite and a fledgling Latino middle class.”

This was a change from the sometimes fiery – and alienating – politics that Chicano activists espoused in the '70s, he says.

He says the mayoral tenure of Henry Cisneros in 1981 (the first Latino mayor of San Antonio since Juan Seguín in the 1840s) and the election in 2001 of Mayor Ed Garza exemplified this new coalition.

The election of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in 2005 was another example, he says.

            “Nationally, Mexican American politics continue to build on the Cisneros example of building coalitions” with non-Latino voters, Rodriguez says.

            The question at the crux of these victories is whether a Latino candidate can energize both Latinos and Anglos, he adds. 

Both Laura Pastor and Michael Nowakowski reflect the kind of District 7 voters who helped lift them into the Nov. 6 council run-off. They are university educated, active in the community, and middle class.

Pastor grew up in the district; Nowakowski has lived there for 16 years.

The area they aspire to govern, District 7, is the fastest-growing district in the city. If it were a city, District 7 would be Arizona's fourth-largest municipality, bigger than Glendale, Scottsdale, Tempe or Chandler.

The district is 55 percent Hispanic; 17,953 Latinos are registered to vote, but only 2,104 voted in the 2007 city council primary. This means only one in eight registered voters actually cast votes.

In contrast, non-Latino registered voters number 32,452; 6,541 voted in the primary, meaning nearly one in five went to the voting booth.

Pastor received 2,617 (41 percent) of the primary votes, and Nowakowski received 2,617 (33 percent) of the votes. Ruth Ann Marston placed third with 1,563 (19 percent) of the primary vote.

Clearly, it took a significant percentage of non-Latino votes to push the two Hispanic candidates into the run-off.

MORE SIMILARITIES THAN DIFFERENCES

Nowakowski – the U.S.-born son of a Mexican mother and Polish father -- learned politics from Chicano activists who came to prominence in the 1960s, including the family of Chicano icon Cesar Chavez, and his own brother-in-law Danny Ortega, a high-profile attorney who regularly challenges state laws that target undocumented immigrants.

Pastor learned her politics from her Chicano father Ed Pastor, Arizona’s first Hispanic Congressman, who is politically entrenched as a Democrat in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District.

Referring to her father at one candidates' forum, Pastor said, “I have a relationship that will enable me to hit the ground running.”

Her political endorsements include Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Attorney General Terry Goddard, and District 7 incumbent Doug Lingner.

Latino politicans who also support Pastor include Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, and state Legislators Richard Miranda, Steve Gallardo, Robert Meza and David Lujan.

Nowakowski learned grassroots organizing from the Catholic Diocese of Phoenix, for which he directed a youth program, and from the Cesar Chavez family-led United Farm Workers union, which owns La Campesina, the Spanish-language Phoenix radio station where he is general manager. His political backing includes Phoenix Councilman Michael Johnson, in District 8, the UFW, and police and firefighter unions.

Pastor's earliest memories are of her father’s campaigns for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors and later, Congress.

“I grew up living and breathing politics,” she says. “I was brought up by our community.”

She has taught junior high students in the Roosevelt and Isaac school districts. She holds a master’s in public administration and is currently is the director of the Achieving a College Education Program (ACE) at South Mountain Community College.

Nowakowski and Pastor have each voiced their views on the most pressing needs of the diverse district.

Nowakowski believes there is a need for affordable housing, having helped to build tracts of low-cost housing in the Valley for the union.

Pastor has said in candidates' forums that she would work with developers to get them to pay for improvements such as sewers in the district. She also says planned development brings tax dollars into the district, and is “funding we can use to invest in our community.”  

Both candidates, however, believe the top issues of their district transcend differences between Latino and non-Latino residents: crime prevention, planned growth, neighborhood preservation, and education.

Tom Morehead, a District 7 resident who is not Hispanic, says both Pastor and Nowakowski have qualities that appeal to him. He is a custom home developer who has sold several of his homes in the area.

“I like their qualifications,” he says. He adds he sees the candidates’ Hispanic-ness as more positive than negative.

“Being Latino, they can definitely help with tough questions regarding how much city police should help federal immigrant agents, and how to get illegal immigrants counted in the Census,” he says.

Morehead said in early October that he still hadn’t made up his mind which one to vote for. He’ll make that call just before the election, “to see if anything big comes up for either one before I vote.”

A LOOK BACK

Political service in Phoenix has historically been patronizing and sometimes rocky for Latino city council members and unsuccessful Hispanic candidates alike.

Adam Diaz opened the Hispanic political portal when he was elected to the Phoenix City Council in 1954.

Since then, four Latinos have been elected to the Phoenix City Council: Valdemar Cordova (1955-'57); Armando de Leon (1970-'74); Rosendo Gutierrez (1976-'80); and Mary Rose Wilcox (1982-'90).

Diaz, Cordova, De Leon and Gutierrez were hand-picked by the Phoenix Charter Government Committee, a group of Anglo Phoenix power-brokers (including Barry Goldwater and Harry Rosenzwieg) that coalesced in the late ‘40s and continued to dominate Phoenix politics until the early ‘70s.

 In those days council members were elected in an “at-large” system (meaning there were no districts) and there were only six council members.

The Charter Government leaders attempted to run diverse tickets, says De Leon, a former council member and now a retired judge. He says Charter leaders picked Latinos for their extensive community service and popularity among Hispanic voters.

Charter-backed Council member Rosendo Gutierrez bolted from under the Charter umbrella in 1975 and ran as an independent during his second term. In 1977 he aspired to become the first Latino mayor of Phoenix. Without Charter support, the result was disastrous. He was beaten by a landslide of votes for his opponent Margaret Hance.

However, some Phoenix leaders who weren’t part of the Charter Government resented the city’s political system being run by a small group. In 1982 the city council election system was changed to eight districts and council members.

At that time, Mary Rose Wilcox was elected in District 7, which encompasses areas of south and west Phoenix. She would be the last Latino elected for decades.

The reasons for the absence Latinos on the Phoenix City Council for the past two decades include a lack of candidates with strong credentials, historically low Latino voter turnout, poor campaign funding and the failure to forge alliances with non-Latino voters, say political analysts.

Even the two Hispanics appointed to fill city council seats – Salomon Leija (District 7) and Jessica Florez (District 4) – were unseated by non-Latino candidates in their first elections. The main reason for losing their seats was a failure to build bridges to non-Latino voters.

Add to the mix the Latino "crabs in the bucket" political metaphor, in which past experience shows that Latino candidates running for the same district undermine each other’s chances for success, often allowing a non-Latino to get elected.

The “crabs/bucket” scenario played out in the 2001 council race in District 8, which covers parts of central and south Phoenix.

That year two viable candidates and community activists – Feliciano Vera and Abedon Fimbres – clashed bitterly during campaigning, and split the Latino vote in the majority Hispanic district.

Although Fimbres made it to the run-off with Black candidate Michael Johnson, he was badly beaten by Johnson (82 percent of the vote). Some political historians attribute Johnson's win to voters being turned off by what they saw as campaign thrashing among candidates.

The "family feud" dynamic over which Latino candidate to support has also been somewhat true in the current District 7 race.

Nowakowski says that there was a consensus among Latino leaders (at the least, the political friends in his circle) that 2007 was his year to make a run at city council.

“I decided I was going to run for Phoenix city council when Salomon Leija lost to (Doug) Lingner,” Nowakowski says. “I was going to run against Lingner until Rosie Lopez decided to run (in 2002.) The Latino leaders sat down with me and I decided to wait,” Nowakowski says.

Nowakowski felt 2007 was his year. Then Laura Pastor threw her hat in the ring, upsetting his chances for success.

“It was my turn, and she knew it,” he says. 

Nowakowski hasn’t hesitated to pitch some fast balls at his opponent during the campaign. He sent out a press release on her vote against placing restrictions on pay day loan companies as a member of the Encanto Village Planning Committee.

Pastor says she resented the implication she was soft on the pay day loan industry.

“It is unfortunate and disappointing whenever someone misrepresents another person’s positions in issues as a way to enhance their own standing,” Pastor says. “I recognize that political cheap shots come with the territory and I can take it, but that’s not how I will spend my time.”

Most times the families of Pastor and Nowakowski have joined forces to support candidates in elections. This city council race pits them against each other. Will hard feelings linger?

Nowakowski likened his hard-fought race against Pastor as a “family picnic softball game.” The two teams play tough, compete fiercely, but it’s just a game.

“There are some sore losers after the game, but at the next family picnic, everybody hugs,” he says.

One Phoenix Hispanic politics observer who wants to remain anonymous believes some bad blood may linger.

 “Michael feels that way, but Laura was hurt by the pay day loan accusations,” says the source. “She may take more time to heal than Michael.”

Phoenix’s position as the leading city in state and Valley politics may start to depend on its Latino leadership, says John Garcia, political science professor at the University of Arizona.

 As the city’s Latino population continues to grow and to coalesce into a voting force, the same changes are occurring in cities flanking Phoenix: on the east by Chandler, Mesa and Gilbert, on the west by Avondale, Goodyear, Surprise, Glendale, and Peoria.

            Phoenix must take the growing Hispanic electorate into account, and diversify its Anglo voter base if it wants to maintain its status atop local and state politics, he says.

“While Phoenix is still growing, the suburbs are growing at a faster rate and more variations of Latino composition than the city, so will Phoenix (Latinos) be the key player in the Valley, or will east and west Valley (Latino) politics help shape the political agendas and outcomes?” says Garcia.

For a glimpse into the future of a multicultural city council, one need only look east to San Antonio.

San Antonio City Council member Phil Cortez says voters there have elected Hispanics to seven of 10 seats because of the high rates of citizenship and voter participation such as are starting to occur in Phoenix.

 San Antonio’s Latino power base continues to dominate Hispanic politics in Texas for the same reasons, he says.

            Yet Latino council members realize they need the Anglo vote to win elections, he adds.

            “If Latino candidates are going to get elected to office, you’re going to have to move away from the idea they are elected solely by Latino voters,” he says. “They have to be supported by other voters as well.”

            Nor does a Latino majority in a city ensure that Hispanics will snag the top political positions, Cortez adds. A well-qualified Hispanic attorney, Julian Castro, lost the 2005 mayoral election to an Anglo retired judge.

            Garcia of the UofA says the next few years will show whether Latinos can continue to be elected to the Phoenix City Council, and whether they will make a difference for Phoenix Hispanic residents.

“If there are two Latinos on the Council,” Garcia says, “then the keys will be: How they work together on behalf of the Latino community….(how they) become visible and active in Phoenix political issues to serve as a catalyst for greater Latino local involvements; and whether the current demographics continue and get translated into a larger political base.”